Tory Victory Prospects Drive Up “Yes” Votes

The most recent Survation poll conducted by the Daily Record shows a closing gap between “Yes” and “No” voters and even shows Yes overtaking No under the prospect of a continued Conservative government.

Yesterday evening, the Daily Record publish an article detailing the results of a poll it had conducted with Survation. The monthly poll has been used to track support for Independence and has shown a steadily narrowing gap between the two sides of the campaign. The survey, which took results from 1004 people, showed that currently 39% of people intend to vote “Yes” with only 44% of people saying they will definitely vote “No”, this is up from last month’s Survation poll placing Yes at 37% and No at 47%. When the undecided voters were removed, the Yes vote stood at 47% and No at 53%, requiring only a 3% swing to give Scotland its independence.

These numbers are, themselves, not very exciting; the gap has been narrowing for quite some time now, although a 3% swing is quite a nice margin, it’s nothing new. What is new, however, is that when voters were asked how they’d vote if they knew that David Cameron and the Conservatives would be elected in 2015 the results changed quite dramatically.

In this case, the yes vote rose to give Yes a backing of 44% compared to 38% who said they’d still vote No. Again, removing the undecided voters, we now get a majority of Scots backing independence with 54% saying Yes and 46% saying No.

Survey Graphic from Daily Record

This really is a stunning leap forward as it’s the highest figure for Yes yet published. It’s also, incidentally, the first time anyone has actually thought to ask that particular question. “What if you were certain that David Cameron would still be PM after the next election?” Despite the Yes Campaign banging on about being able to shake ourselves free of unwanted Tory governments, no official poll to date has asked that question – at least not one that’s had it published.

And is another Tory government certain? Well, it does look that way. And yes, I would say that now, wouldn’t I?

But it does look that way for a few reasons. Not least of all because a large number of people simply don’t see Ed Miliband as PM material. It’s hard to argue with that when he’s taken so long to get his act together. He also does look remarkably like Wallace from Wallace and Gromit.

Whilst the Labour Party have been trying very hard to move away from the Blairist New Labour, they’ve had some trouble convincing the electorate that they could actually pull it out of the bag. They’ve also made clear their position that they’d keep a number of Tory cuts to welfare and public services in place. Understandably, this has a number of people a little upset with Labour.

Labour are also refusing to promise an in-out referendum on Europe unless Brussels started draining more powers away from the UK, which doesn’t seem too likely at this stage. Meanwhile the Tories are promising such a referendum in the middle of their next term should they be re-elected. Given the results of the recent European Parliament elections, this is what the English electorate want.

It doesn’t help either that Labour have been seen to be in bed with the Tories over independence for quite some time. This has invariably hurt their reputation on both sides of the border. When discussions within the Labour Party arose surrounding the idea that they should have steered clear of the Tories’ Better Together campaign and started their own Labour based campaign for the union, the feeling was a resigned “it’s too late.”

Labour has tried very hard over the past five year term to revamp itself and become more attractive to the electorate, and it will doubtless continue to do so throughout the next five years. However, it seems unlikely that they will beat the Conservatives to power in 2015. Whilst they have been neck and neck at times in the polls, they are slipping just shy again.

Nobody thought that the coalition would last, but it has. And let’s not forget that it’s been quite a while since a party held the government benches for only a single term.

As awful as it feels to be predicting a Tory win in 2015, that’s the way it seems. Now I’d love to see a Labour victory and give Ed a chance to act on some of his good old fashioned lefty policies – the renationalisation of the railways for one… God Scotrail piss me off sometimes! But unless something big happens soon, I think that the Tories will be holding onto the government benches in 2015. I do, however, strongly believe Labour will be there in 2020.

The point, though, still stands. We will end up with a Tory government in 2015, and if we vote No, we’ll be stuck with them. Not only will we be stuck with them, but we’ll be stuck with whatever crap they decide to inflict upon us and all the other subsequent Tory governments to come.

My advice for the best course of action? Vote Yes in 2014. Vote Labour in 2016 in our shiny new independent parliament!

Anyway, regardless of my grim predictions for the next election; it’s a very interesting result for the Yes side indeed. And with the gap narrowing, with 97 days left to go, Scotland is well within our grasp!

 

Link to the Daily Record’s article: http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/bombshell-daily-record-poll-shows-3678091

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